Bitcoin's recent 30% price surge has been a fascinating phenomenon, and what makes it even more intriguing is the hidden rhythm and structure that underpin this surge. In my opinion, this is not just a random fluctuation, but a carefully orchestrated dance of liquidity and momentum across different trading sessions and hours. Let's delve into this and explore the insights that could shape our understanding of the market.
The Session Picture: APAC and the U.S. Lead the Charge
The data from Velo reveals a clear picture: APAC and the U.S. sessions have been the driving force behind the 31% price rise since February 6. APAC has produced a return of 13%, with the U.S. at 11.5%, while Europe lags significantly at 6.5%. This is particularly interesting because it shows that the market's liquidity and momentum are strongest in these two regions. What's more, the U.S. session's contribution is notable because it was not always the leader. For most of February and March, returns during U.S. hours were mostly flat to negative, while APAC led the recovery. But that suddenly changed in early April, with the U.S. session flipping decisively positive.
The Best and Worst Hours
The next obvious question is which hours are optimal for trading during these best-performing sessions. The answer lies in the midnight UTC candle, which represents the price action between 00:00 and 01:00. This has been the best hour, producing an average return of 0.10% over three months. This is particularly interesting because it sits right at the intersection of two sessions: the late U.S. trading hours and early APAC, when fresh liquidity enters the market. The second strongest hour is 15:00 UTC, deep in the European session, and the worst single hour is 06:00 UTC.
The Best Day to Place a Bullish Bet: Monday
On a day-of-week basis, the data is unambiguous. Monday has been the strongest day of the week by a wide margin over the past three months, averaging a return of approximately 1.5%. Wednesday is a distant second at around 0.65%, and Friday is mildly positive at around 0.3%. Thursday is the worst single day, averaging around negative 0.55%. Across the full three months, weekdays overall average approximately positive 0.4% while weekends average negative 0.25%. To conclude, for bulls looking to time market entries, Monday has been the clearest edge in the data.
Broader Implications and Future Developments
This data highlights the importance of understanding the market's rhythm and structure. It shows that liquidity and momentum are strongest in APAC and the U.S., and that certain hours and days are more favorable for trading. However, it does not guarantee the continuation of trends. As we look to the future, it will be interesting to see how this rhythm evolves and whether it continues to shape the market's performance. One thing that immediately stands out is the role of global events, such as the progress toward a U.S.–Iran memorandum of understanding, which can significantly impact the market's rhythm and structure.
Psychological and Cultural Insights
From a psychological perspective, this data suggests that traders may be influenced by the time of day and day of the week when making trading decisions. This could have implications for risk management and market timing. From a cultural perspective, it highlights the importance of understanding the global market's rhythm and structure, and how this can shape our understanding of the market's performance. What many people don't realize is that this rhythm is not just a random fluctuation, but a carefully orchestrated dance of liquidity and momentum across different trading sessions and hours.
Conclusion: A Thoughtful Takeaway
In conclusion, Bitcoin's 30% price surge has been a fascinating phenomenon, and the hidden rhythm and structure that underpin this surge are equally intriguing. As we look to the future, it will be interesting to see how this rhythm evolves and whether it continues to shape the market's performance. For now, one thing is clear: understanding the market's rhythm and structure is crucial for market timing and risk management. In my opinion, this is a key insight that could shape our understanding of the market and help us make more informed trading decisions.
